Jan 192014
 

The Patriots keep beating those odds against the spread in recent match ups with the Bronco’s. As of this morning Denver is picked to win by 5 but many betters are saying “not so fast” and placing their money on a Pats win and trip to the big game. These teams have met three times in the playoffs and the home team won and covered each time, a stat that gives a boost to Denver fans looking to bet on the Super Bowl. However the Pats won in dramatic fashion in their last contest when they came back from a disastrous first half to pull off a last second win and many are betting that they will do it again later today in the mile high city.Bill Belichick football head coach (9) Here is a look at the odds and the match up from the Las Vegas Sun. New England Patriots at Denver Broncos, 3 p.m. Sunday on CBS The line: Denver minus-5. For the seventh time in 15 career meetings against Peyton Manning, Tom Brady comes in as the underdog. It’s the most points his Patriots have gotten against Manning since Oct. 21, 2001, when they upset the Colts 38-17 at plus-10 on betting boards. Brady has gone 3-3 straight-up and 3-2-1 against the spread as the underdog against Manning, but he is getting shorted here. The Patriots opened as high as plus-6, but sharp bettors ensured that generous price didn’t last long. The line got as low as a consensus minus-4.5 before sports books found some buyback on the Broncos. Manning is 0-2 against Brady since joining the Broncos, dropping his overall numbers in the rivalry to 4-10 straight-up and 5-7-2 against the spread. The matchup: This game will surely come down to more than Manning vs. Brady, but it’s one heck of a place to start. The gap between the two legendary quarterbacks’ performances this season isn’t as pronounced as the common perception. Oh, Manning — with his snapping of both Brady’s touchdown-record and the 2007 Patriots’ scoring record — easily had the better year. But Brady has come on strong late. In Football Outsiders’ weighted DVOA, which heavily adjusts for the final two months and downgrades early-season performance, New England’s offense is slightly ahead of Denver’s. The Broncos are still bounds in front by the season-long metric, but the deviation makes sense. Since Week 12, the Patriots have outscored the Broncos, albeit by the narrowest of margins — 233-232. That’s conveniently where weighted DVOA begins measuring, the same week the Patriots beat the Broncos 34-31 in the likely Game of the Year. Brady had 344 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in the contest. Manning had 150 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. That’s not an entirely fair comparison, as Denver tasked Manning with protecting an early 24-0 lead while the dire situation forced Brady to bomb away. Just about everything from that game in Foxboro, Mass., is superfluous as the two teams have changed as much as a couple random kaleidoscope slides. LeGarrette Blount punched the Patriots into the AFC Championship Game with 166 yards and four touchdowns in a walloping against the Colts last week. Blount had two carries for 13 yards the first time against the Broncos. Tight end Julius Thomas led Denver in receiving yards against San Diego in the divisional round but didn’t play in the first New England game. Absences will have a larger impact than additions. Denver linebacker Von Miller had a fumble-recovery touchdown and two sacks against New England in November but is now out for the year. The Broncos’ most consistent defensive back, Chris Harris, joined Miller as the fifth starter lost for the year in last week’s game against San Diego. They can’t complain any more than the Patriots, which couldn’t even feign surprise when punter Ryan Allen went down with a bizarre injury against the Colts. It’s just been that type of year for the Patriots, who have lost their two best defensive players in Jerod Mayo and Vince Wilfork, among others. Pick: Denver minus-5

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